The U.S. and its Al Qaeda letter
This week a letter sent by Al Qaeda’s #2 man Ayman al-Zawahiri to the leader of the opposition in Iraq Abu Musab al-Zarqawi was intercepted by the United States and published. After looking this letter over, it is the first one released by the United States that I doubt is real. Following are some excerpts.
Why exactly is this letter laying out goals for the Iraq conflict? Goals were likely established when Zarqawi met with the Al Qaeda leadership a couple of years ago when Zarqawi formally changed his group to be identified with Al Qaeda with the name “Al Qaeda in Iraq”. Even if they were not then, why would you send the goals in a letter, and not discuss and create them face to face?
Now take a closer look at the goals. All of them support the argument that the United States cannot leave Iraq and must remain to remove Al Qaeda from there. If you were the United States and engaged in Psychological Operations, like we know they are, this is the perfect letter for two reasons. First, it reasons why the United States must remain in Iraq, or else look what they are planning.
Second, the letter goes on to tell Zarqawi that he should change his tactics in Iraq to achieve those goals.
The one thing the United States cannot afford to have is the continual strikes on the Shia. The US can handle attacks on their troops because they can defend against them and minimize them, but are less able to restrain attacks on the Shia. Continual attacks on the Shia have two problems. First, they give the media something tragic to show on the news everyday; the death of 100s of ordinary citizens every month. Second, the more violent and disrespectful the attack, the more likely there will be retaliation. The only thing preventing a civil war right now is that the Shia have not responded to the insurgent attacks, but it is only a matter of time for that to change. It is in the interest of the United States to have Zarqawi change his tactics, not in the interest of Al Qaeda. Although Al-Zawahiri is right in the long term, in the short term it is better for a civil war to break out in Iraq to get the U.S. to leave. Public opinion will plummet when 100s of soldiers begin to die per week, and the United States will be praying for the civil war to stop so they can leave. As soon as it does stop, the U.S. will get out of there quick. I know some don’t think we would leave a place in such bad conditions, but I’d like to remind you of what happened in Somalia. A civil war for a month of two is probably in the best interest of Al Qaeda, no civil war is in the interest of the United States.
For these reasons, I believe this letter is a phony.
Al Qaeda
Al-Zwahiri
Iraq
“So we must think for a long time about our next steps and how we want to
attain it, and it is my humble opinion that the Jihad in Iraq requires
several incremental goals: …
The first stage: Expel the Americans from Iraq…
The second stage: Establish an Islamic authority or amirate…
The third stage: Extend the jihad wave to the secular countries
neighboring Iraq.
The fourth stage: It may coincide with what came before: the clash with Israel, because Israel was established only to challenge any new Islamic entity.”
Why exactly is this letter laying out goals for the Iraq conflict? Goals were likely established when Zarqawi met with the Al Qaeda leadership a couple of years ago when Zarqawi formally changed his group to be identified with Al Qaeda with the name “Al Qaeda in Iraq”. Even if they were not then, why would you send the goals in a letter, and not discuss and create them face to face?
Now take a closer look at the goals. All of them support the argument that the United States cannot leave Iraq and must remain to remove Al Qaeda from there. If you were the United States and engaged in Psychological Operations, like we know they are, this is the perfect letter for two reasons. First, it reasons why the United States must remain in Iraq, or else look what they are planning.
Second, the letter goes on to tell Zarqawi that he should change his tactics in Iraq to achieve those goals.
“…For that reason, many of your Muslim admirers amongst the common folk
are wondering about your attacks on the Shia. The sharpness of this
questioning increases when the attacks are on one of their mosques, and
it increases more when the attacks are on the mausoleum of Imam Ali Bin
Abi Talib…”
The one thing the United States cannot afford to have is the continual strikes on the Shia. The US can handle attacks on their troops because they can defend against them and minimize them, but are less able to restrain attacks on the Shia. Continual attacks on the Shia have two problems. First, they give the media something tragic to show on the news everyday; the death of 100s of ordinary citizens every month. Second, the more violent and disrespectful the attack, the more likely there will be retaliation. The only thing preventing a civil war right now is that the Shia have not responded to the insurgent attacks, but it is only a matter of time for that to change. It is in the interest of the United States to have Zarqawi change his tactics, not in the interest of Al Qaeda. Although Al-Zawahiri is right in the long term, in the short term it is better for a civil war to break out in Iraq to get the U.S. to leave. Public opinion will plummet when 100s of soldiers begin to die per week, and the United States will be praying for the civil war to stop so they can leave. As soon as it does stop, the U.S. will get out of there quick. I know some don’t think we would leave a place in such bad conditions, but I’d like to remind you of what happened in Somalia. A civil war for a month of two is probably in the best interest of Al Qaeda, no civil war is in the interest of the United States.
For these reasons, I believe this letter is a phony.
Al Qaeda
Al-Zwahiri
Iraq
posted by Punjabi Assassin at 12:22 AM
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